How The Unusual Campaign Redefined the Conventional Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.
Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.
Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5
Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!
Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.
Still
