A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
